After the New Year's Day holiday, the plasticize market experienced multiple price fluctuations, mainly affected by raw material supply, rising costs and changes in downstream demand. Phthalic anhydride has become a key factor in driving up the price of plasticize such as DOP, while the supply and price fluctuations of raw materials such as octane also have an important impact on the market. After the Spring Festival holiday, the plasticize market as a whole may show a weak operating trend. Although some products have upside potential, the upside potential is expected to be limited.
After the New Year's Day holiday, the plasticizer market experienced multiple price fluctuations. Taking DOP as an example, the market momentum of its main raw material octanol has weakened due to increased supply and expected insufficient downstream stocking. On the contrary, the price of another key raw material, phthalic anhydride, quickly jumped to more than 7,000 yuan/ton against the background of supply shortage and significant cost increase, becoming a key factor driving the rise in DOP prices. As of January 16, the market price of DOP in Jiangsu reached 8,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 375 yuan/ton compared with the end of December.
As another major o-benzene plasticizer, DBP is showing a steady upward trend. The market for raw material n-butanol rose slightly, and the market for phthalic anhydride rose sharply, which enhanced the cost support of DBP. Due to tight spot supply in many regions, factory quotations were raised. Although some downstream companies have suspended production and are on holiday, some traders still need to stock up, and the market is dominated by low-price transactions. However, as prices exceeded the previous high, downstream acceptance of high prices declined, purchasing enthusiasm weakened slightly, and overall transactions became flat.
Judging from the market trends after New Year's Day, the rise in ophthalmic plasticizers is mainly led by phthalic anhydride. The market prices of o-xylene and industrial naphthalene, the raw materials of phthalic anhydride, have risen sharply, and cost support has been significantly enhanced. In addition, phthalic anhydride manufacturers mainly deliver early orders, and spot supply is tight. Driven by factors such as continued enhancement of cost support and tight industry supply, the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply. As of January 16, the market price of o-phthalic anhydride in East China reached 7,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton compared with the end of December.
As the main raw material, the market performance of octanol after New Year's Day is mainly affected by the procurement rhythm of downstream factories. In addition to rigid demand, the steady increase in demand for stage replenishment and pre-holiday stocking is the main driving factor, and the market is gradually strengthening. The output of major factories remains stable with small fluctuations, spot inventories continue to tighten, and the overall supply side tends to tighten.
In addition, although the benzene plasticizer DOTP is not directly affected by phthalic anhydride, it is still affected by the main product DOP, raw materials octanol and PTA. The raw material market is stable and rising, DOTP cost support is strong, and the market fluctuates and rises. However, some industries such as downstream PVC wires and cables have suspended production for holidays, and the overall stocking volume is limited, and new orders are generally sold.
After the Spring Festival holiday, the overall performance of the plasticizer market may tend to be weak. Although some products may have an upward trend, the space is limited. Taking DBP as an example, there are many maintenance devices for the raw material n-butanol after the holidays, and prices are expected to rise. However, most downstream industries resume work and production around the Lantern Festival, and the demand side recovers slowly. It is expected that the DBP market will consolidate at a high level after the holiday, with limited upside potential. For DOP and DOTP, the upstream octanol market may be stable and weak after the holidays, with insufficient cost support. Downstream PVC wire and cable and other industry parking devices may gradually restart in mid-to-late February, and the demand side will recover slowly. Some market participants are worried about the overall inventory pressure in the industrial chain after the holiday, and the market is expected to operate weakly in February.
